0000007835 00000 n The publication of The American Voter in 1960 revolutionized the study of American voting behavior. Weba new model of legislative behavior that captures when and how lawmakers vote differently than expected. It is a theory that makes it possible to explain both the voting behaviour of voters and the organisational behaviour of political parties. Thus, they were well suited not only to develop and test theories of voting La dernire modification de cette page a t faite le 11 novembre 2020 01:26. The role of the media and campaigns simplifies information by summarizing it. This theory presupposed that the voter recognizes his or her own interest, assesses alternative candidates, and on the basis of this assessment, will choose for the candidate or party that will be most favourably assessed in the sense of best serving his or her own political interests and interests. These two proximity models are opposed to two other models that are called directional models with Matthews' simple directional model but especially Rabinowitz's directional model with intensity. Partisan attachment is at the centre of the graph influencing opinions on certain issues being discussed or the attitudes of certain candidates. The voters have to make that assessment and then decide which one brings more income and which one we will vote for. In other words, social, spatial or group membership largely determines individual political actions. Fiorina reverses the question, in fact, partisan identification can result from something else and it also produces electoral choices. Often identified as School of The function of partisan identification is to allow the voter to face political information and to know which party to vote for. However, this is empirically incorrect. In this perspective, voting is essentially a question of attachment, identity and loyalty to a party, whereas in the rationalist approach it is mainly a question of interest, cognition and rational reading of one's own needs and the adequacy of different political offers to one's needs. On the other hand, to explain the electoral choice, we must take into account factors that are very far from the vote theoretically, but we must also take into account the fact that there are factors that are no longer close to the electoral choice during a vote or an election. There is also a literature on whether certain parties have certain issues, which voters believe are the parties that are better able to deal with a certain issue. Voters assess the utility income of parties and candidates. Bakker, B. N., Hopmann, D. N., & Persson, M. (2014). The system in the United States is bipartisan and the question asked was "Do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat or otherwise? Voters have knowledge of the ideological positions of parties or candidates on one or more ideological dimensions and they use this knowledge to assess the political positions of these parties or candidates on specific issues. Hirschman contrasts the "exit" strategy with the "voice" strategy, which is based on what he calls "loyalty", which is that one can choose not to leave but to make the organization change, to restore the balance between one's own aspirations and what the organization can offer. It is by this configuration that May tries to explain this anomaly which is due to the fact that there is a group of voters who become activists within the party and who succeed in shifting the party's positioning towards the extremes. The advantage of the intensity directional model is that it goes in a more intense direction, i.e. The influence of friends refers to opinion leaders and circles of friends. The extent to which the usefulness of voters' choices varies from candidate to candidate, but also from voter to voter. The study of swing voters has its origins in the seminal works of the Columbia school of voting behavior (Berelson et al. WebNetworks in electoral behavior, as a part of political science, refers to the relevance of networks in forming citizens voting behavior at parliamentary, presidential or local Fiorina proposed an alternative way to explain why voters vote for one party rather than another, or a different answer to how the position of different candidate parties can be assessed. This model explains for Downs why we abstain. On the other hand, preferences for candidates in power are best explained by the proximity model and the simple directional model. This identification is seen as contributing to an individual's self-image. At the aggregate level, the distribution of partisan identification in the electorate makes it possible to calculate the normal vote. (PDF) Analysis of Vote Behavior in Election - ResearchGate From the perspective of the issue vote, there are four main ways to explain how and why voters are going to vote a certain way and why parties are going to position themselves. There is this curvilinear disparity because the three actors position themselves differently. Political parties that compete in elections often promote themselves through affirmative political concepts for the development of society. The psycho-sociological model can be seen in the light of an explanatory contribution to the idea that social inking is a determining factor in explaining the vote, or at least on a theoretical level. At the basis of the reflection of directional models, and in particular of directional models with intensity, there is what is called symbolic politics. The idea is that it is in circles of interpersonal relations even if more modern theories of opinion leaders look at actors outside the personal circle. There has also been the emergence of empirical criticisms which have shown that the role of partisan identification has tended to decrease sharply and therefore an increase in the role of the issues and in particular the role of the cognitive evaluation that the actors make in relation to certain issues. Hinich and Munger say the opposite, saying that on the basis of their idea of the left-right positioning of the parties, they somehow deduce what will be or what is the position of these parties on the different issues. There are also studies that show that the more educated change less often from one party to another. The strategies and shortcuts are mainly used by citizens who are interested in going to vote or in an election but who do not have a strong preference beforehand. From the point of view of parties and candidates, the economic model and in particular the model that was proposed by Downs in 1957 and which predicts a convergence of a party position towards the centre. Some people talk about membership voting for the first two theories and cognitive voting for the economic model of voting. Studies have shown that, for example, outside the United States, a much larger proportion of voters who change their vote also change their partisan identification. A set of theories has given some answers. All of these factors and their relationships have to be taken into account, but at the centre is always the partisan attachment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. If voters, who prefer more extreme options, no longer find these options within the party they voted for, then they will look elsewhere and vote for another party. Hence the creation of the political predisposition index which should measure and capture the role of social insertion or position in explaining electoral choice. With regard to the limits, methodological individualism has often been evoked, saying that it is an exclusively micro-sociological perspective that neglects the effect of social structure. The importance of symbols lies in what arouses emotions. Harrop, Martin, and William L. Miller. 0 Others have criticized this analogy between the economic market and the political market as being a bit simplistic, saying that, basically, the consequences of buying a consumer product have a certain number of consequences, but they are much more limited compared to what buying a vote can have in terms of choosing a party. does partisan identification work outside the United States? The sociological model is somewhat the model that wants to emphasize this aspect. This economic theory of the vote, this rationalist theory, has a great advantage over the other models, which is that it does not only focus on voters, that is to say, it does not only focus on political demand, but it also looks at supply and especially at the interaction between supply and demand. WebThe central concept of this model of voting behavior is partisanship, which is designed as a psychological affinity, stable and lasting relationship with a political party that does not Sometimes, indeed often, people combine the first two models incorporating the psycho-sociological model on the basis that the Michigan model is just an extension of the Columbia model that helps explain some things that the Columbia model cannot explain. Pages pour les contributeurs dconnects en savoir plus. What interests us is that the idea of issue voting is fundamental to spatial theories of voting. The idea is that each voter can be represented by a point in a hypothetical space and this space can be a space with N dimensions and each dimension represents an election campaign issue, so that this point reflects his or her ideal set of policies, i.e. Merrill and Grofman have proposed unified models that want to get out of this hyper-simplification with respect to spatial theories where one either makes a choice of possibilities or a choice of direction but evacuates any other element such as partisan identification, socialization, social inclusion, economic conditions as well as the role of opinion leaders as seen in the funnel model of Michigan theory. Has the partisan identification weakened? In the spatial theories of the vote, we see the strategic link between a party's supply and a demand from voters or electors. Regarding the causal ambiguity, there are also critics who say that this approach is very strongly correlational in the sense that it looks for correlations between certain social variables and electoral choices, but the approach does not explain why this variable approach really has a role and therefore what are the causal mechanisms that lead from insertion, positions, social predispositions to electoral choice. We are not ignoring the psychological model, which focuses on the identification people have with parties without looking at the parties. Three elements should be noted. 0000006260 00000 n Today, there is an attempt to combine the different explanations trying to take into account, both sociological determinants but also the emotional and affective component as well as the component related to choice and calculation. To summarize these approaches, there are four possible answers to the question of how voters decide to vote. The theory of the economic model of the vote is also a model that allows predictions to be made about party behaviour. IVERSEN, T. (1994). In this model, importance is given to primary socialization. On the other hand, the political preferences are exogenous to the political process which is the fact that when the voter goes to vote which is the moment when he or she starts to think about this election, he or she already arrives with certain fixed or prefixed political preferences. It is also possible to add that the weight of partisan identification varies from one voter to another. It can be defined as lasting feelings of attachment that individuals develop towards a certain party. For Fiorina, the retrospective vote is the fact that current policy is fundamental, whereas in the prospective vote it is less so. There are two variations. WebThis voting theory suggests that models of the vote choices of rational individuals should work with social rather than selfish utility functions. On the other hand, in rationalist approaches, shortcuts are cognitive shortcuts. LAZARSFELD, PAUL F., BERNARD BERELSON, and HAZEL GAUDET. JSTOR. The presupposition is that voter preferences are not exogenous but are endogenous - they change within the framework of an electoral process. The psycho-sociological model is intended as a development that wants to respond to this criticism. WebThe three widely accepted behavioral models of voter choice are: the sociological model, the social-psychological model, and the rational choice model. Voting requires voters to know the candidates' positions on issues, but when there are several candidates or several parties, it is not very easy for some voters in particular. The idea is to create a party that forges ideologies and partisan identities. How was that measured? There are three possible answers: May's Law of Curvilinear Disparity is an answer that tries to stay within the logic of the proximity model and to account for this empirical anomaly, but with the idea that it is distance and proximity that count. 0000000016 00000 n WebThis voter is voting based on what is going to benefit them. (Second edition.) 5. This approach would be elitist, this assumption that voters have the ability to know what is going on which is the idea of information and this ability that voters have to look at that information and process it. But there are studies that also show that the causal relationship goes in the other direction. For Przeworski and Sprague, there may be another logic that is not one of maximizing the electorate in the short term but one of mobilizing the electorate in the medium and long term. Some have criticized this model saying that it puts forward the one-dimensional image of the human being and politics, that is, that it is purely rational, hypercognitive in a way without taking into account sociological but also psychological elements. His conclusion is that the vote is explained both by elements of leadership, partly by an element of proximity and distance, but also, for some parties, it must also be taken into account that there are parties that act according to a mobilization of the electorate according to the approach of Przeworski and Sprague. Apart from the combined models, it can be thought that different models may explain differently according to historical moments and phases of a process of political alignment and misalignment just as models may better explain certain types of candidates or according to the profile and type of voters. McClung Lee, A. The problem of information is crucial in the spatial theories of voting and who would need an answer to fully understand these different theories. There are also intermediate variables that relate to loyalties to a certain group or sense of belonging. the difference in the cost-benefit ratio that different parties give. So there is an overestimation in this model with respect to capacity. Among these bridges, one of the first bridges between the psycho-sociological voting theory and the rationalist theories was made by Fiorina because he considers partisan identification to be an important element in explaining electoral choice. This is the idea that gave rise to the development of directional models, which is that, according to Downs and those who have followed him, because there is transparency of information, voters can very well see what the political platforms of the parties or candidates are. Voters try to maximize their individual utility. startxref Print. The studies of voters behavior in elections showed that vote decisions do not occur in a vacuum or happen by themselves. In Switzerland, the idea of an issue is particularly important because there is direct democracy, which is something that by definition is based on issues. The term "group" can mean different things, which can be an ethnic group or a social class. The basic idea is somewhat the same, namely that it is a way that voters have at their disposal, a euristic and cognitive shortcut that voters have at their disposal to deal with the problem of complex information. We need to find identification measures adapted to the European context, which the researchers have done. Webbehavior covers a large range of possible subjects of research, from the behaviors of bureaucrats and interest groups to the dealings of political terrorists. A distinction must be made between the affective vote of the psycho-sociological model and the cognitive vote of the theories of the economic model. WebAbstract. This model relies heavily on the ability of voters to assess and calculate their own interests and all the costs associated with the action of going to the polls. Economic theories of voting explain both voter turnout (1) and electoral choice (2). These three models diverge in methodology and application of research, but each has provided important data regarding the factors that influence voter choice. The idea is that there is something easier to evaluate which is the ideology of a party and that it is on the basis of this that the choice will be made. Voters try to maximize the usefulness of the vote, that is, they try to vote for the party that makes them more satisfied. Christopher Rice Follow Strategic Foresight Consultant, Facilitator, Public Speaker, Provocateur, Fox in a world of Hedgehogs - Less thunder in the mouth, more lightning in the hand Recommended Voting Behaviour Peped 4.6k views 22 slides Political Parties Chris Thomas 5.8k views 32 slides Introduction to Elections Peped 5.6k views The political consciousness of individuals is based on social experiences and has little weight outside these experiences. In this case, there may be other factors that can contribute to the voter choice; and all parties that are on the other side of the neutral point minimize the voter's utility, so the voter will not vote for that party all other things being equal. The Lazarsfeld model would link membership and voting. Often, in the literature, the sociological and psycho-sociological model fall into the same category, with a kind of binary distinction between the theories that emphasize social, belonging and identification on the one hand, and then the rationalist and economic theories of the vote, which are the economic theories of the vote that focus instead on the role of political issues, choices and cost-benefit calculations. 135150. In other words, this identification is part of the self-image one can have of oneself. This model predicts a convergence of party program positions around two distinct positions, there are two types of convergence. As far as the psycho-sociological model is concerned, it has the merit of challenging the classical theory of democracy which puts the role on the rational actor. These spatial theories start from the assumption that there is a voter or voters who have political preferences with respect to certain issues, but completely discard the explanation of how these preferences are formed. xref There is the idea of the interaction between a political demand and a political offer proposed by the different candidates during an election or a vote. Survey ndings on voters motivations are, in fact, broadly consistent with rational models of voting (see Section 4.3). Furthermore, "social characteristics determine political preferences". Applied to the electorate, this means no longer voting for one party and going to vote for another party. 0000000636 00000 n It is possible to attribute some merits and some criticisms to this model at least in its initial formulation. In other words, when we are interested in trying to explain the vote, we must already know what type of voter we are talking about. That is called the point of indifference. Its University of Michigan authors, Angus Campbell, Philip E. The strategic choices made by parties can also be explained by this model since, since this model postulates an interdependence between supply and demand, we address the demand but we can also address the supply. Here we see the key factors, namely electoral choice and, at the centre, the identification variable for a party, which depends on two types of factors, namely primary socialization and group membership. Proximity models will give certain proximity related answers and the other more recent models offer an alternative answer based on certain criticisms. There is the important opposition between an economic vote based on a choice, which is the idea that the voter makes a real choice based on a cost-benefit calculation, a choice that is rational in the end according to Weber's typology, while the psycho-sociological vote is rather based on a concept of loyalty that often makes the opposition between choice and loyalty. A particular configuration is the fact that there are dissatisfied party activists who are extremist compared to voters and elected party leaders. Q. There are certain types of factors that influence other types of factors and that in turn influence other types of factors and that ultimately help explain the idea of the causal funnel of electoral choice. These theories are called spatial theories of the vote because they are projected. The 2020 election has driven home that the United States has a disparate and at times chaotic 50-state (plus D.C.) voting system. In the literature, spatial theories of voting are often seen as one of the main developments of the last thirty years which has been precisely the development of directional models since the proximity model dates back to the 1950s. This jargon comes from this type of explanation. The sociological model at the theoretical level emphasizes something important that rationalist and economic theories have largely overlooked, namely, the importance of the role of social context, i.e., voters are all in social contexts and therefore not only family context but also a whole host of other social contexts. For most theories, and in particular Matthews' Simple Directional Model theory, the neutral point determines direction. It is a moment when social cleavages directly influence the vote in this approach and therefore the sociological model, perhaps, at that moment, better explains the vote. We are going to talk about the economic model. Basically, Downs was wrong to talk about proximity logic and to explain some of the exceptions to the proximity model. This is the idea of collective action, since our own contribution to an election or vote changes with the number of other citizens who vote. The Peoples Choice: How the Voter Makes Up His Mind in a Presidential Campaign. Finally, there is an instrumental approach to information and voting. There are different strategies that are studied in the literature. We are looking at the interaction. He wanted to see the role of the media in particular and also the role of opinion leaders and therefore, the influences that certain people can have in the electoral choice. The idea is that this table is the Downs-Hirschman model that would have been made in order to summarize the different responses to the anomaly we have been talking about. As part of spatial theories of the vote, some theories consider the characteristics of candidates. The following is our summary of significant U.S. legal and regulatory developments during the first quarter of 2023 of interest to Canadian companies and their advisors. They find that conscientious and neurotic people tend not to identify with a political party. The utility function of this model is modified compared to the simple model, i.e. Using real data, the model has a predictive accuracy of 94.6% and an ROC AUC score of 96%. Symbolic politics says that what is important in politics are not necessarily the rationally perceived positions or the political positions of the parties but what the political symbols evoke in relation to certain issues. In summary, it can be said that in the economic model of voting, the political preferences of voters on different issues, are clearly perceived by the voters themselves which is the idea that the voter must assess his own interest, he must clearly perceive what are the political preferences of voters. On that basis, voters calculate the utility income of the different parties and then they look at and evaluate the partisan differential. If we accept this premise, how will we position ourselves? [15] Then we'll look at the space theories of the vote. The psycho-sociological model says that it is because this inking allows identification with a party which in turn influences political attitudes and therefore predispositions with regard to a given object, with regard to the candidate or the party, and this is what ultimately influences the vote. For Fiorina the voter does not do that, he will rather look at what has happened, he will also look at the state of affairs in a country, hence the importance of the economic vote in the narrower sense of the word. The premise of prospective voting is too demanding for most voters. The idea is to see what are all the factors that explain the electoral choice. The curve instead of the simple proximity model, or obviously the maximization from the parties' point of view of electoral support, lies in the precise proximity between voters' preferences and the parties' political programs on certain issues, in this case this remains true but with a lag that is determined by discounting from a given status quo. There is a particular requirement, which is that this way of explaining the voting behaviour of the electoral choice is very demanding in terms of the knowledge that voters may have about different positions, especially in a context where there are several parties and where the context of the political system and in particular the electoral system must be taken into account, because it may be easier for voters to know their positions when there are two parties, two candidates, than when there are, as in the Swiss context, many parties running. %PDF-1.3 % It is also often referred to as a point of indifference because there are places where the voter cannot decide. . This is called the proximity model. The heterogeneity of the electorate and voters must be taken into account. The behavior results either in support for political candidates or parties or abstention from the voting process. 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